Vietnam's coffee export volume in August fell to the lowest level since November 2022 due to limited supply. However, the export price of this item has increased to a new record of USD 3,054/ton, nearly USD 700/ton higher than the same period last year.

According to data published by the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's coffee exports in August fell to the lowest level since November last year with a volume of 84,647 tons, worth USD 258.5 million, a decrease 22.3% in volume and 16% in value compared to the previous month.

Accumulated in the first eight months of the year, coffee exports reached 1.2 million tons, worth nearly  USD 3 billion, compared to the same period last year, decreased by 5.4% in volume but increased by 3.1% in value thanks to increase in selling price.

Thus, the total amount of coffee exported in the first 11 months of the 2022 - 2023 crop year (from October 2022 to August 2023) reached more than 1.6 million tons, a slight decrease of 2% compared to the same period of the previous crop year.

With output in the current crop year forecast to be only about 1.5 - 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 10 - 15% compared to the 2021-2022 crop year, the coffee supply for export has now almost reached depletion and expected to only improve from November when supply from the new 2023-2024 harvest is brought into the market.

However, low inventories pushed export coffee prices in August to a new record of USD 3,054/ton, an increase of 8% over the previous month and an increase of 30% (nearly USD 700/ton) compared to the same period last year.

In the first eight months of the year, the average export price of coffee increased by nearly 9% to USD 2,463/ton.

Recently, Rabobank forecast that global coffee production in the 2023-2024 crop year (October 2023 to September 2024) may only reach 172.6 million bags, a decrease of 1.6 million bags compared to the previous forecast.

The main reason is that the output of Colombia and Vietnam may be lower than expected. Accordingly, Rabobank forecasts that Vietnam's 2023-2024 coffee production will reach 29 million bags, a decrease of 0.5 million bags compared to the previous forecast.

Data from the Import-Export Department shows that processed coffee export turnover increased nearly 22% in the first 7 months of this year to USD 448.7 million, accounting for 17% of the country's total coffee export turnover.

In contrast, the proportion of green coffee (including robusta and arabica) decreased to 83.3% compared to 85% in the same period. Mainly because Arabica coffee export turnover decreased by 34.6%, while robusta coffee increased by 3.9%.

Kylie Nguyen