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Opportunity for Vietnam's coffee to regain market share in the EU


The EU is the world's largest coffee consuming market and is considered a potential market for coffee exporting countries, including Vietnam.

According to the International Trade Center (ITC), the EU accounts for 47-49% of the total value of global coffee imports in the 2017 - 2021 period with an average growth rate of 3.7%/year, turnover reaching USD 15.7 billion/year. In particular, EU coffee imports are on the rise, reaching USD 17.3 billion in 2021, the highest since 2011.

Vietnam holds the second position in terms of coffee exports to the EU after Brazil, but Vietnam's coffee market share in the EU in recent years has gradually decreased from 9.7% in 2017 to only 6.2% in 2021.

Therefore, the EVFTA Agreement is expected to help Vietnam regain its position and market share in the EU in the near future. In fact, since the beginning of 2022, businesses have taken advantage of the advantages of the EVFTA to boost coffee exports to the EU market.

Currently, the EVFTA is entering the implementation phase in the third year with more extensive tariff commitments, which will contribute positively to Vietnam's coffee exports to the European Union.

Besides the advantages from the EVFTA Agreement, Vietnam's coffee exports to the EU are also supported by other factors such as improved coffee quality, reduced supply chain congestion.

In addition, the decline in global coffee supply in 2022, especially in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, etc. which are competitors to Vietnam, also opens up opportunities for Vietnamese coffee exporters to regains market share in EU.

Regarding the EU's consumer demand, according to a recent forecast by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), EU coffee imports in the 2021-2022 crop year will increase by more than 1.1 million bags compared to the 2020-2021 crop, to 45 million bags.

At the same time, this number is expected to continue to increase by 1 million bags in the 2022-2023 crop to 46 million bags and account for 40% of the world's imported green coffee. Top suppliers include Brazil, Vietnam, Uganda and Honduras.

USDA also forecasts EU coffee consumption in the 2022-2023 crop to reach 42.9 million bags, increased by 0.6 million bags from the previous crop year and the highest level in recent years. EU ending stocks are expected to decrease by 400,000 bags to 12.4 million bags due to increased consumption demand.


Kylie Nguyen

© 2019 Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development No. 2 Lang Ha street, Ba Dinh district, Hanoi, Vietnam
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