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VDSC: Seafood exports in the third quarter would slow down


According to the Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) after strong growth in the first half of 2022, seafood exports in July tend to slow down with a value of USD 970 million, decreased by 4% compared to June but increased by 14% over the same period in 2021.

The reason is adverse weather, the rainy season comes earlier than other years, affecting seafood production, causing diseases on farmed shrimp, reducing shrimp production; another reason is that the stockpiles from last year has also been depleted

In which, shrimp exports recorded two consecutive months of decline, while pangasius still maintained its growth momentum.

According to the seafood industry report of Viet Dragon Securities Corporation (VDSC), pangasius exports in the third quarter may slow down compared to the second quarter, before recovering in the fourth quarter. Exports to the US market will decrease significantly in volume while selling prices remain high due to high global food inflation.

However, VDSC is quite optimistic about the Chinese market after the country lifted its import suspension policy for frozen food contaminated with COVID-19. Besides, the demand for pangasius in China is abundant after two years of declining imports.

VDSC expects the increase in exports to this market can partially offset the decline in the US market and companies whose main export market is China can benefit.

As for shrimp, VDSC forecasts that shrimp export value in the second half of the year may increase slowly compared to the first half of 2022.

In this context, companies exporting to the EU or Japanese markets can maintain high growth business results while companies dependent on the US market will face a decline in demand, which in turn could affect profits in the second half of 2022.

With this situation, VDSC believes that the profits of seafood companies in the second half of the year may slow down, but there is still a possibility of double-digit growth.

On the other hand, corporate profits will not drop as dramatically as in 2018-19 as demand remains high amid global food shortages. High inflation continues to support seafood prices and raw material supply has not yet recovered.


Kylie Nguyen

© 2019 Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development No. 2 Lang Ha street, Ba Dinh district, Hanoi, Vietnam
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