BVSC: Credit demand may increase, the State Bank would provide more room extension
Recently, BVSC forecast that credit demand will increase and it is likely that the SBV will expand credit room for commercial banks.
According to a recent bond market report, Bao Viet Securities (BVSC) believes that credit growth of the whole economy is at a very positive level. Especially in the context that the economy is suffering damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, many businesses have to suspend production and business due to the distancing order from Directive 16.
Specifically, as of the end of August, credit growth of the whole economy reached 7.4% and continued to increase after reaching 6.66% at the end of July. Outstanding loans also recorded an increase compared to at the beginning of the year, reaching over VND 680,000 billion.
Thus, compared to the previous month, credit growth of July and August continued to remain positive, with an increase of 0.69% and 1.13% respectively.
Compared to the same period last year, the growth rate in the first 8 months of this year is about 1.5 times higher than last year (the growth rate in the first 8 months of last year was 4.82%).
In the last months of the year, experts estimate that credit growth will continue to recover strongly, expected from October, in the scenario that localities gradually remove the distance orders and business activities of enterprises are reopened.
Recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020, when production activities took place normally and domestic tourism service activities began to reopen, outstanding loans increased from 6.08% (as of the end of September) to 12.13% at the end of the year.
Therefore, BVSC believes that the scenario will repeat when the pandemic is better controlled and the COVID-19 vaccination continues to be actively implemented in the near future. Accordingly, credit demand will record an increase and it is likely that the SBV will grant more credit room to commercial banks to support businesses to restore operations.
Similar to 2020, the State Bank has twice increased the credit limit for a number of commercial banks, of which the highest limit is up to 30% to stimulate the economy.
According to a recent update report of BIDV Securities, many banks have been granted additional credit rooms, especially joint-stock banks. In which, Techcombank and TPBank are the two banks that are granted the highest credit growth.
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