Credit demand will gradually recover towards the end of the year
According to SSI Research, in the base scenario, if the pandemic is well controlled in August, credit demand will gradually recover towards the end of the year.
According to the newly published money market report, SSI Securities Analysis Division is of the opinion that in the week from July 26 to July 30, there were no new transactions in the open market and foreign currency forward contracts continued to be executed to help improve the local currency supply.
Interbank interest rates last week decreased by 0.48 to 0.52 percentage points, ending the week at 0.97% p.a. for overnight term and 1.18% p.a. for one-week term.
Generally for July, the interbank interest rate level was almost flat, at 1.01% p.a. for overnight term, slightly down from 1.21% p.a. in June.
SSI Research expects interbank interest rates to continue to fall next week, in the context of weak credit demand due to prolonged social distancing and local currency sources from mature foreign currency sales contracts.
“In the base scenario, if the pandemic is well controlled in August, credit demand will gradually recover towards the end of the year. The lending interest rate level will be flat while the deposit interest rate will increase slightly on average by about 0.5 percentage points”, according to the analysis team..
In the foreign exchange market, the movement of the USD in the international market and the stable supply and demand of foreign currencies in the country helped the listed exchange rates of commercial banks decrease by up to 60 dong/USD in both directions, ending the week of buying and selling at 22,820 - 23,050. The free-market exchange rate decreased by 80 dong on the buying side and 70 dong on the selling side, closing the week at 23,120 - 23,180.
Thus, VND has increased by 0.27% against USD in July and has gained a total of 0.65% against USD in the first seven months of the year. SSI Research believes that the USD/VND exchange rate will move sideways in the short term and may decrease slightly towards the end of the year due to the improved balance of payments.
- Governor: Will increase credit limit for banks
- BVSC: Credit demand may increase, the State Bank would provide more room extension
- SSI Research: increasing remittances at the end of the year will help stabilize the exchange rate
- SBV: Directing credit flows to manufacturing and priority sectors
- The State Bank of Vietnam extends the debt restructuring period for another 6 months
- SSI: Credit growth in August will not be too positive
- Eight months, credit increased by 7.4%
- In the first 7 months of the year, Ho Chi Minh City credit grew by 5.9%
- Credit flows strongly into industrial zones
- The SBV may continue to cut policy interest rates if GDP growth is negative in the third quarter