Credit growth in the first five months reached 4.67%
Credit growth in the first five months of 2021 reached 4.67%, much higher than nearly 2% of the same period last year.
According to a report in the recent regular government press conference, the credit growth of the economy in the first five months of the year reached 4.67% while, in the same period last year, this figure was less than 2%.
On the other hand, capital mobilization is showing signs of slower growth than credit. As of March 19, the growth of capital mobilization of credit institutions only reached 0.54% while the growth of outstanding loans reached 1.47%, data from the General Statistics Office.
According to experts, this is putting pressure on the liquidity of the banking system. Bao Viet Securities (BVSC) said that this development shows that the liquidity of the banking system in 2021 is likely not to be as redundant as in 2020.
However, in the upcoming period, BVSC believes that the increase in credit will not be too "hot", enough to put pressure on interest rates in general in the market, when the State Bank of Vietnam applies credit limits to most banks at a lower level than the same period last year and the COVID-19 epidemic is complicated.
In addition, with inflation growth expected to continue at a low level in 2021, BVSC expects to remain low compared to 2019 and earlier.
Having the same opinion, analysts of SSI Securities (SSI Research) said that although the difference in deposit and credit is narrowing, the liquidity of banks is also worse; however, in the context of the current complicated pandemic, credit demand may be affected and the SBV will also insist on keeping interest rates low to support businesses and the economy.
"The interest rate level will remain stable at a low level in the second quarter of 2021 because the liquidity of banks is still quite abundant," forecasted SSI Research.
- The SBV may continue to cut policy interest rates if GDP growth is negative in the third quarter
- Positive credit growth expectations
- VDSC: Credit growth is estimated at 9.5 - 10.5% by the end of the third quarter
- VCSC raises credit growth and NIM forecasts for banks in 2021
- Proposing 50% reduction of interbank electronic payment transaction fees until June 30, 2022
- Credit demand will gradually recover towards the end of the year
- Digital transformation accelarated in banks
- Free and reduced banking fees for all transactions
- Adjusting credit growth targets for banks
- The State Bank of Vietnam issued plan for implementation of the UKVFTA Agreement