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EVS: Vietnam's CPI in 2022 is likely to increase to 4-4.5%

23/05/2022

According to a newly released report, Everest Securities JSC (EVS) believes that the average CPI increase of 2.1% over the same period in the first four months of the year is not too high thanks to the policies of the government to limit imported inflation relatively successfully.

However, with the prolonged complicated world macro context, EVS continues to maintain the forecast that Vietnam's CPI in 2022 will increase slightly to 4 - 4.5% for the following reasons.

Firstly, the world fuel price cooled down more slowly than expected. In addition, the prolonged supply chain congestion caused the prices of inputs for production to rise at steep rate. Besides, the demand for goods has recovered when Vietnam has gradually overcome the COVID-19 pandemic.

EVS emphasized that inflation continues to be a factor that needs attention in the upcoming period.

The company's report also mentions the delay in public investment due to the high cost of raw materials.

Realized investment capital from the State budget in April 2022 is estimated at VND 33,500 billion (an increase of 6.6% over the same period). Accumulated over the first four months of 2022, investment capital realized from the State budget is estimated at VND 109,600 billion, equaling 20.6% of the year plan and an increase of 9.1% over the same period last year.

The progress of disbursement of public investment is relatively slow partly due to the high price of raw materials causing projects to be halted. The Government has proposed plans to transfer the unallocated capital as planned to other units with projects and additional capital needs in accordance with the resolution in Resolution No. 50 dated April 8, 2022 of the Government. EVS expects the disbursement speed of public investment capital will be significantly improved in the upcoming period.

 

Kylie Nguyen

© 2019 Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development No. 2 Lang Ha street, Ba Dinh district, Hanoi, Vietnam
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