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GDP growth rate of 6 months is forecast at about 5.8%

07/06/2021

The report on the socio-economic situation in May and the first 5 months of the year, presented by the Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung in the recent regular Government meeting, shows that the administration of the socio-economic development plan has been implemented synchronously and effectively.

Therefore, despite the difficult context, the socio-economic situation in the first five months of the year continued to have positive changes, achieving remarkable results.

Regarding the macro economy, according to the MPI's report, the money and foreign exchange markets were stable, credit recovered, lending interest rates fell and the liquidity of the credit institution system was guaranteed.

State budget revenue over five months reached 49.7% of the estimate, increased by 15.2% over the same period in 2020. Total export and import turnover has a high growth rate, with 5-month increase is estimated at 33.5% compared to the same period in 2020. same period in 2020.

In addition, innovation, application of science and technology, and digital transformation have been strongly promoted such as the National Digital Transformation Program for Vietnamese businesses.

Especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, Vietnam is the only country in the world that has been simultaneously upgraded to positive by all three international credit rating agencies (Moody's, S&P and Fitch).

At this regular Government meeting, Minister Nguyen Chi Dung also made forecasts of the Ministry of Planning and Investment on the implementation of a number of targets in the first six months of 2021.

In which, the Ministry of Planning and Investment forecasts that the macro economy and major balances of the economy will continue to be maintained stably; inflation is under control, money and foreign exchange markets are stable, credit structure has shifted in a positive direction.

State budget revenue in the first six months is estimated at 55.5% of the estimate, increased by 10.9% over the same period in 2020, approximately the same level in the same period in 2019. State budget expenditure is estimated at 43% of the forecast; disbursement of public investment capital in the first six months of the year is estimated at 34.15% of the plan (the same period reached 34.85%)

Agricultural and industrial production grew by 3% and about 7.8%. Output of textile, garment, and automobile industries had a good increase. But the output of electronic products is forecast to only achieve a small increase or even a decrease.

Consumption continues the recovery trend, total retail sales of goods and services for social consumption is forecast to increase by 7.1%. The service sector is forecast to grow by about 5%.

Also according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the number of newly registered enterprises is forecast to continue the low growth trend (about 1.6%) but the newly registered capital is forecast to increase strongly (about 34.8 times). %); the trend of enterprises withdrawing from the market is still quite high.

The Ministry of Planning and Investment forecasts that GDP growth rate in the first six months will reach about 5.8%, 1.31 percentage points lower than the scenario target of 7.11% set out in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP.

The driving force for economic growth in 2021 is identified to be from the industry - construction sector and the service sector, especially the manufacturing and processing industry, increasing investment and expanding commercial activities, etc.

 

Kylie Nguyen

© 2019 Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development No. 2 Lang Ha street, Ba Dinh district, Hanoi, Vietnam
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