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IMF forecasts that Vietnam has the highest GDP growth among the 5 ASEAN countries


The IMF forecasts that Vietnam's GDP growth this year will be about 3.8%, higher than that of Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia.

In its World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts economic growth in Asia this year at around 6.5%. Several countries have good GDP growth rates such as Singapore 6% (last year negative 5.4%), China 8% (last year 2.3%).

In the group of five Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam leads in terms of growth rate of 3.8% (last year 2.9%).

The remaining 4 countries, i.e. Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, and Malaysia last year all had negative growth, and this year's growth forecast is also below 3.5%. The IMF even forecast Thailand to grow only 1% while last year GDP growth was negative 6.1%.

According to the IMF, supply chain disruptions and price pressures are restraining the recovery momentum of economies. As a result, the global growth forecast for 2021 has been downgraded to 5.9%, slightly down from the previous 6% and unchanged from the forecast for 2022 at 4.9%.

The organization acknowledged that the labor force participating in the market is still lower than the pre-epidemic level. Overall, the labor market in emerging and developing countries is more affected than in developed countries.

According to ADB's latest forecast, Vietnam will be in the 5th position. While Singapore will regain the 4th position in terms of economic size with a growth rate of 6.5%, reaching USD 359.38 billion. Malaysia is forecast by ADB to grow 4.7%, lower than the IMF's 6.5% forecast. Therefore according to ADB, Malaysia's position in terms of GDP has not improved this year.

According to ADB, Vietnam's GDP growth has recovered in the first half of 2021, largely due to the expansion of trade. However, the impact of the 4th wave of Covid-19 pandemic has negatively affected labor supply, reduced industrial output and disrupted agricultural value chains.

Kylie Nguyen

© 2019 Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development No. 2 Lang Ha street, Ba Dinh district, Hanoi, Vietnam
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