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VDSC: plenty of room for import and export growth in 2022

11/01/2022

According to Viet Dragon Securities Joint Stock Company (VDSC), looking back in 2021, import and export of goods continues to be the bright spot of the economy with a total turnover of nearly USD 670 billion, an increase of nearly 23% compared to 2020. In which, exports reached  USD 336 billion, an increase of 19%; imports reached  USD 332 billion, an increase of 26.5%.

The trade balance in 2021 recorded a trade surplus of about USD 4 billion. This is the 6th year that Vietnam continues to record a trade surplus, mainly with developed countries with strict quality requirements for imported goods such as the US (export surplus of about USD 80 billion); EU (export surplus of nearly USD 23.2 billion).

In 2021, 35 items achieved export turnover of over USD 1 billion, accounting for nearly 94% of total export turnover, of which there are 8 items with export turnover of over USD 10 billion.

Processed industrial products continue to account for a large proportion in the export structure, accounting for about 86% of total export turnover, increased by 0.6 percentage points compared to 2020.

In which, the export turnover of steel products increased the most with 123%, followed by machinery and equipment products increased by 41% and wood products increased by 20%.

Exports of technology products still grew strongly despite the outbreak of the pandemic, in which, exports of phones and computers increased by 12.4% and 14.4% respectively over the same period in 2020.

In particular, textiles and apparel and footwear are two groups of goods that were heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic but recovered, export turnover increased by 9.8% and 4.9% compared to 2020 respectively.

VDSC forecasts that world commodity demand will peak and central banks will tighten monetary policy throughout 2022, growth of the global economy will remain above potential.

Although, governments are gradually withdrawing support packages due to the negative impact of the pandemic, monetary policy is expected to keep interest rates at a relatively comfortable level while some additional fiscal stimulus measures are expected to come from Japan and other developed countries (EU and US).

In addition, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, effective from January, is expected to boost Vietnam's trade flows.

In 2022, the EVFTA can boost Vietnam's export growth to the EU more positively as the economic sector is recovering at a faster rate than expected.

Overall, Vietnam's trade activities still have plenty of room for growth next year, supported by growing external demand and trade agreements such as the EVFTA, UKVFTA and RCEP.

However, VDSC forecasts that in 2022, market export growth to China and the US may slow down. Meanwhile, exports to other countries will continue to improve thanks to the post-COVID-19 economic recovery.

 

Kylie Nguyen

© 2019 Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development No. 2 Lang Ha street, Ba Dinh district, Hanoi, Vietnam
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