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Vietnam's economy seen from the first quarter of 2021: Recovery and acceleration


Vietnam has shown its ability to control the COVID-19 crisis and turn the crisis into an opportunity by initially achieving a dual goal.

Despite the difficult world economic situation, many organizations forecast that Vietnam will enter a "rebound" period.

According to the Director of the Department of National Accounts Statistics Le Trung Hieu, in the first quarter, growth was greatly supported by the agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors. In addition, the key industries in the first quarter regained their growth momentum, creating growth momentum for the second quarter. Industrial and construction sector, industry in the first quarter of 2021 increased by 6.5% over the same period last year, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 9.45%, contributing 2.37% to the overall growth. Many industries with high growth such as rolled steel, telephone, equipment, etc.

The first quarter also recorded a strong recovery of import and export activities when the total import and export turnover of goods was estimated at USD 152.65 billion, an increase of 24.1% over the same period last year; of which exports reached USD 77.34 billion, an increase of 22%. In addition, Vietnam also benefits from the high growth cycle of the global technology industry and strong FDI inflows. This trend will be with positive developments with the rapidly improving global demand.

According to United Overseas Bank (Singapore), Vietnam's economic activities are recovering. It is forecast that Vietnam's economy in 2021 will reach a GDP growth of 7.1%. International organizations such as IMF and World Bank have forecasted growth rates of 6.7% and 6.8% respectively.

Among the 16 economies in Asia calculated by HSBC this time regarding forecasts of GDP growth, Vietnam is the country with the highest adjusted GDP growth in 2022. Commenting on Vietnam's economy in 2021, HSBC emphasized: Vietnam's economy has demonstrated its strong resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic. The growth momentum of Vietnam’s economy following achievements in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic remains very strong, real GDP growth is estimated to reach 6.6%, in line with the 6.5% target set by the Government.

ASEAN + 3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has just stated that Vietnam's GDP is expected to reach 7% in 2021 thanks to the recovery of external demand, resilience of the domestic economy and increased production capacity.

According to experts at the National Science Conference "Vietnam Economy in 2020, prospects for 2021” organized by Central Economic Committee in coordination with National Economics University on March 31, the first quarter plays an important role in the national development orientation for the whole year and the first quarter has been with positive socio-economic developments, bringing into play the inherent strengths of the year 2020.


Kylie Nguyen

© 2019 Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development No. 2 Lang Ha street, Ba Dinh district, Hanoi, Vietnam
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