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In the first half of 2021, Vietnam's GDP is estimated to increase at a 5.64% rate


According to the General Statistics Office, in the first half of this year, Vietnam's GDP is estimated to increase at a 5.64% rate. According to Bloomberg, this is an impressive number even when the country is experiencing the worst pandemic outbreak recently, causing a series of main production areas to temporarily close.

Vietnam’s GDP growth in the second quarter of 2021 is estimated at 6.61%, higher than the growth rate of the same period last year, but lower than the growth rate of 6.73% in the second quarter of 2018 and 2019. Besides, this number is also lower than the average estimate of 7.2% by Bloomberg in the last survey.

Bloomberg emphasized, Vietnam has been successful in containing the pandemic in the first months of the pandemic. But when the pandemic wave came at the end of April, industrial parks, which have a series of important electronic equipment manufacturing centers, had to temporarily close. Typically, Bac Giang, Bac Ninh, Binh Duong, Ho Chi Minh City, which are considered the "capital" of the processing and manufacturing industry.

Regarding the recent growth results, Mr. Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics said: “Looking past the jump in y/y growth due to a weak base for comparison, GDP data suggest that Vietnam is facing a heavy economic toll from its efforts to control the virus. With sporadic outbreaks continuing, the economy is likely to suffer further in the months ahead”.

Recently, at the regular Government meeting, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh also emphasized that he agreed not to change the set target and agreed with two growth scenarios developed by the Ministry of Planning and Investment (GDP growth for the whole year 6% under scenario 1 and 6.5% under scenario 2).

Previously, Mr. Le Trung Hieu, Director of the National Account System (General Statistics Office) informed that, with the recent increase, in order to achieve the growth target of over 6% this year, the economy will need to grow at 6.3% in the second half of the year.

Earlier, Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, economist in charge of Vietnam and Thailand of Standard Chartered Bank also said that Vietnam's economy will continue to remain strong. However, rapid economic growth will likely increase inflation, and rising world food prices are also affecting domestic inflation. It is forecast that Vietnam's average inflation in 2021 will be at 3.8%.


Kylie Nguyen

© 2019 Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development No. 2 Lang Ha street, Ba Dinh district, Hanoi, Vietnam
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