Although the economy had good growth results in the first half of this year, there are still many risks in the last months of the year due to the prolonged Covid-19 pandemic. However, experts said, the economy could return to the pre-pandemic GDP growth rate of 6.5 - 7% from 2022 onwards.

Rahul Kitchlu - Acting Country Director of the World Bank (WB) in Vietnam - said that achieving the economic growth target this year is still difficult, but in 2022, there is less chance of widespread social isolation, which creates a more positive foundation for the prospect of economic growth returning. "While downside risks have heightened, economic fundamentals remain solid in Vietnam, and the economy could converge toward the pre-pandemic GDP growth rate of 6.5 to 7 percent from 2022 onward" - emphasized Mr. Rahul Kitchlu.

A representative of Viet Dragon Securities Corporation analyzed, with the base scenario assuming that, Vietnam will achieve a new normal when 70% of the population completes vaccination, this will allow most economic sectors to reopen. Inter-provincial traffic will continue, loosening up for social activities, and Vietnam's GDP is forecast to grow by 6.5% in 2022, along with a recovery in the manufacturing sector and personal consumption spending.
To achieve the expected growth rate, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu - economic expert - said that the most important issue now is to prioritize vaccination for workers and keep the disease from spreading to businesses and industrial zones. "Promoting vaccination and keeping the pandemic from spreading are important factors for growth" - Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu emphasized.

Also according to Dr. Le Duy Binh, in order for the economy to develop sustainably, first of all, it is necessary to improve the competitiveness of enterprises so that in any situation, they can be stronger and more resilient. The Government and ministries, branches and localities need to continue strongly implementing long-term solutions to support businesses. In addition, the development of the individual household business sector and the gradual upgrading of the informal economic sector should also be focused on.

Experts say that, without stronger supportive policies, economic activity is forecast to recover at a low level due to the profound effects of the pandemic on the labor market, supply chains and government budgets. Besides, the promotion of public investment may not be as desired due to Covid-19 control measures, the Government may need to use fiscal resources for the purpose of pandemic prevention and control.

Kylie Nguyen