Despite lowering its growth forecast for 2021, experts from Standard Chartered still assess the outlook as positive for Vietnam's economy in the medium and long term.

Experts from Standard Chartered Bank have just announced to downgrade Vietnam's growth forecast from 6.5% to 4.7% for 2021 and from 7.3% to 7% for 2022 due to weak economic indicators, serious disease developments and slow vaccination.

Last month, this bank also lowered its forecast for Vietnam's economic growth in 2021 from 6.7% to 6.5% and forecast in 2022 to continue to be maintained at 7.3%.

According to Standard Chartered, in case the positive cases of COVID-19 are not brought under control in September, the growth rate is likely to continue to decline and the State Bank is likely to make an interest rate cut.

According to experts from Standard Chartered, economic growth is likely to recover in the fourth quarter and improved global trade will support Vietnam's import and export activities. However, economic growth in the third quarter is expected to slow down.

The situation of the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to continue, causing investment flows into Vietnam to decline from now until the end of the year as well as negatively affecting the tourism sector.

Meanwhile, according to the General Statistics Office, as of the end of August, export turnover of goods is estimated at USD 212.5 billion, an increase of 21.2% over the same period last year; in which, the domestic economic sector reached USD 55.6 billion, an increase of 10.5%, accounting for 26.2% of total export turnover; FDI sector (including crude oil) reached USD 156.8 billion, an increase of 25.5%, accounting for 73.8%.

In the first eight months of 2021, the whole country has 30 products with export turnover of over USD 1 billion, accounting for 91.8% of total export turnover, of which 6 items are with export turnover of over USD 10 billion, accounting for 63%.

To support domestic enterprises to produce and boost exports, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said it would organize to take advantage of opportunities from FTAs to find solutions to develop markets and remove barriers to entering new markets; prioritize the implementation of export promotion activities and that export markets recover soon after the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, this agency also focuses on closely monitoring the situation of each market, reviewing and identifying the types of goods that countries are importing to promote exports.

Kylie Nguyen