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HSBC: Vietnam's GDP growth is forecast at 5% this year and 6.3% in 2024


Mr. Frederic Neumann, Managing Director, Chief Asia Economist at HSBC, forecasts that Vietnam will achieve 5% growth in 2023.

In the first nine months of 2023, Vietnam achieved an economic growth rate of 4.24%. With this result, Mr. Frederic Neumann, Managing Director, Chief Asia Economist at HSBC forecast that Vietnam will achieve 5% growth in 2023, meaning that fourth quarter growth will be about 6%.

Although this year's growth rate is lower than the Government's target, this is an extraordinary recovery when compared to other economies, according to HSBC.

According to HSBC, Vietnam's forecast growth this year and next year are both leading in Southeast Asia. The momentum from exports is positive because there are many holidays at the end of the year and monetary policies in major markets are loosened. The PMI purchasing index has passed the average level. The second driving force is domestic spending, including consumption and government purchases, which is forecast to increase.

Of the total added value of the entire economy over nine months, the service sector increased by more than 6.3% (contributing 69%).

According to HSBC, this shows the positive impact of solutions to support input costs for businesses, thereby reducing output pressure, stabilizing market prices in general, and promoting personal consumption.

Tourism is also highly appreciated when Vietnam ranks first in ASEAN in terms of total tourist arrivals this year, growing by 80% compared to 2019.

According to Mr. Frederic, Vietnam will face short-term challenges such as the FED increasing interest rates, a strong USD, and reduced exports. In the future, economic growth in the United States - a key export country of Vietnam - slows down, and exports to Europe are also unlikely to increase strongly.

However, exports to China are increasing, although the products exported to China are mainly agricultural products.

One of the driving forces for Vietnam's economic growth is the tourism industry. Vietnam tourism has had a lot of improvements, especially with the loosened visa policy. HSBC said that Vietnam can expect to achieve a 100% recovery in the last months of the year with the return of Chinese tourists.

HSBC forecasts global economic growth in 2024 at 2.3%, China's GDP growth is forecast at 4.6%, US growth at 1.4%, Indonesia growth at 5%, etc.


Kylie Nguyen

© 2019 Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development No. 2 Lang Ha street, Ba Dinh district, Hanoi, Vietnam
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