With growth in the third quarter being more positive than forecast, VDSC also raised its GDP growth forecast for the whole year to 5%, higher than the previous forecast of 4.7%.

In the recently published macro report, Viet Dragon Securities Company (VDSC) emphasized the positive signal of third quarter GDP growth that the industrial production sector has recovered.

In addition, the service sector maintained a growth rate similar to the previous quarter and public investment reflected economic growth more clearly.

According to VDSC: "GDP growth in the first nine months of the year is currently 4.2%, far from the Government's target for the whole year of 6%. Achieving a growth rate of 6%, in our opinion, is an extremely challenging goal because it requires GDP growth in the fourth quarter to reach over 10%”.

With growth in the third quarter being more positive than forecast, the analysis team raised its GDP growth forecast for the whole year to 5%, higher than the previous scenario of 4.7%. This means that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is estimated at 7%, of which the industry and construction sector increased by 8%, higher than the increase of 5.2% in the third quarter, partly thanks to the low baseline level of the same period last year.

The report also mentioned some notable points in the acceleration of the industrial production sector: the production of electronic products has returned to positive growth after negative growth in the first half of the year.

Similarly, apparel production has also gained growth (increased by 5% compared to negative growth of 9.3% and 3.9% in the first and second quarters). Meanwhile, the sector with the fastest growth in the industry is metal production (increased by 16.9% in the third quarter).

In terms of consumption of industrial products, the consumption index improved in textiles and garments, wood processing, metals and chemicals, while the consumption level of electronic products has not changed much. In addition, the sharp decline in inventories of many industries over the same period could imply a recovery in the production cycle in the last quarter of the year when demand is improving.

Regarding PMI, experts believe that although the PMI index may fluctuate around the 50-point threshold, manufacturing activities are still on an upward trend. S&P Global's survey shows that two other positive indicators are that inventories of purchased goods and finished goods decreased at the same time (for the first time in three months) and confidence in output prospects for the next year has recovered for the fourth consecutive month.

Kylie Nguyen