Experts of Viet Dragon Securities Corporation forecast that credit growth would reach about 9.5-10.5% compared to the beginning of the year by the end of the third quarter. At the same time, it is forecast that NIM will be negatively affected in the short term due to interest rate cuts.

According to the recent banking update report of Viet Dragon Securities Corporation (VDSC), experts forecast credit growth will reach about 9.5-10.5% compared to the beginning of the year by the end of the third quarter, unless the credit limit is approved for a third extension.

The report also shows that in the third quarter, commercial banks will be cautious about annual credit growth due to complicated pandemic developments, while the forecast for deposit growth will be unchanged from the previous one. Credit and deposit growth are forecast at 11.2% and 9.6%, respectively.

According to VDSC, the current demand is still maintained in some economic sectors, but the paperwork is being affected, leading to limitations in disbursement. Meanwhile, deposit operations can still be done online easily.

In addition, VDSC does not expect any change in deposit structure this time. In contrast, credit costs may not increase too much based on the support of Circular 03, the balance sheet expansion rate is moderate as the credit limit granted has not met expectations.

Analysts forecast that the NIM margin will be negatively affected in the short term, and the recovery after revaluation will be negligible compared to last year. Overall, the annualized NIM is expected to remain sustainable at a higher pre-pandemic level, but below its peak from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2021.

Kylie Nguyen